Gear up for another awesome weekend of college football action with BettingPros! We’ll have you covered with all of our top picks for the week along with our projected spreads and totals to help guide your college football bets. Below are our top picks and predictions for Saturday’s game: Penn State vs. Illinois.
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Top College Football Odds & Picks: Penn State vs. Illinois
Penn State (-14) at Illinois
ATL: PSU -17.2
Let’s walk through this one together.
Is Penn State objectively more than two-touchdowns better than Illinois on the road? My system would give a resounding: Yes. After watching every snap of Kansas-Illinois last week, my eye test would agree.
This Illini team is way down from last year’s after it lost a historical amount of talent over the offseason. And I’ve been given no reason, on the other side of things, to back off my statement over the summer that Penn State might be better than Ohio State this fall.
The next question, naturally, becomes: Will Penn State be motivated enough to keep their foot on the gas pedal well into the fourth quarter if that’s what’s needed to secure this two-TD cover for us?
General long-term data point: HC James Franklin is now 64-49-3 (60.9%) ATS at Penn State after starting this season 2-0 ATS. That’s one of the P5’s best cover rates over that time.
More specific short-term data point: In the opener against West Virginia, up 31-15 as 21-point favorites, Franklin took matters into his own hands to secure a cover. On PSU’s final drive, Franklin went for it on 4th-and-2, and then, instead of kneeling the clock out, elected to try to punch the ball in one last time. Penn State did so, and covered in a 38-15 win that had West Virginia bettors cursing up a storm.
Historically-topical data point: This is the first meeting between Penn State and Illinois since Illinois upset Penn State as 24.5-point underdogs in an NCAA-record 9OT two years ago in Happy Valley. That game was special to HC Bret Bielema €“ his 100th career win €“ and also the game the Illini point back to when asked when things turned around for the better under Bielema. Penn State’s memories of that afternoon are not as fond.
The "it’s personal" data point: On Monday, at his weekly press conference, Bielema said the following about Penn State: "They do a tremendous job in recruiting and they’re allowed to do things there at Penn State that allow them to get a lot of skill players in the program."
That comment reached Happy Valley immediately and has drawn a vitriolic response from Penn State’s fanbase. And if you don’t think James Franklin will have it on his mind on Saturday, you don’t know James Franklin.
Franklin, a coach who seems to be actively aware of the point-spread of his games and goes for covers late even when it isn’t PC to do so, already would have had revenge on his mind for the 2021 debacle against Illinois. Bielema just ensured that Franklin will take extra glee in running up the score on Saturday if he gets a chance to.
The play: PSU -14 (play to -16.5)
Best Ways to Bet College Football for Beginners
Game Total
Bettors new to the hobby can be confused by spreads, but game totals are simple. Every football game has a total posted for the combined final score between the two teams. Bettors have the option to choose the OVER or UNDER, generally at -110 odds (risk: $110; win: $100). So if the total is 42 and you take the OVER, you need 43 points to win the bet. If you put a bet down on the over to win $100 and it goes over, you get back the money you initially risked, plus $100. If it stayed under, you would have lost your $110 and that’s it. If by chance the game ended with 42 total points, it’s called a push; when a game pushes, you get the money you risked back but nothing more.
ie: California vs. Illinois, Over 42 or Under 42
tip: Over bets can be a really fun social event with your buddies. Have everyone throw in a few bucks, then take the over together. Instead of getting pumped when one side scores, everyone is pumped for ANY score, all game.
Moneyline
The moneyline is the easiest way to test your college football knowledge: who will win the game? That’s it. The moneyline doesn’t use favorites or underdogs, it’s totally straight up. That said, the risk-reward can be challenging because they’re weighted. Instead of every game being around -110, like game totals and spreads, moneylines vary depending on the matchup.
For our example, California was favored by seven points over Illinois, meaning oddsmakers think the Golden Bears are a touchdown better than the Fighting Illini. If you took Cal on the moneyline, points don’t matter, they just need to win the game. But because it’s safer to take them straight-up without points, you’ll have to risk more when you make the bet €” remember, they’re seven points better than Illinois in the eyes of the oddsmakers. In this case, Cal is -280 on the moneyline, so if you want to win $100, you have to risk $280. On the flip side, moneyline bets can be valuable when taking the underdog because it’s a riskier bet €” they’re seven points worse than their opponent. In this case, Illinois is the underdog €” +220 on the moneyline. You’d win $220 on a $100 bet if you picked Illinois on the moneyline and they pulled off the upset.
ie: California (ML -280) vs. Illinois (ML +220)
tip: Check their history against one another. Keep an eye on the injury report and the weather.
Player Props
Player props are some of the most exhilarating bets you can place during a college football game, but they’re also easy to understand. For major conferences, you’ll have a wide array of options to choose from. Quarterbacks, running backs, receivers, and sometimes tight ends will have props to choose from. It’s simple, fun and easy to follow, and odds on player props don’t vary as much as moneylines. Generally, prop bets are in the -110 range like generic spread and total bets.
ie: How many passing yards will Brandon Peters have against California? Over 250 or Under 250
tip: Check how players have performed in the situation they’re going to be in. Use split stats on any reliable site to see their numbers at home, on a neutral-site, in December, etc.
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