Week 6 NFL Survivor Pick Strategy: Vikings, Packers, Texans, Rams

Week 6 NFL Survivor Pick Strategy: Vikings, Packers, Texans, Rams

October 11, 2018 – by Tom Federico

In the post, we’ll analyze some pros and cons of five of NFL Week 6’s most popular survivor picks: the Vikings, Packers, Texans and Rams. We’ll also recap the impact of last week’s results on NFL survivor pools.

Although Minnesota is the biggest favorite of Week 6 according to betting lines, keep in mind that the safest team isn’t always your best option. To maximize your edge in survivor pools, you need to consider other critical strategy factors like pick popularity and its future value.

For a more detailed explanation, see our blog post on winning survivor pool strategy.

Want expert Week 6 survivor picks customized for your pool? In four out of five weeks of the NFL season so far, our recommended picks have out-survived the public, and last season TeamRankings subscribers reported over $1 million in NFL survivor pool prize winnings. Check out our premium NFL Survivor Picks product.

Last Week’s Survivor Pick Recap

Five of the six most popular survivor picks in last week (the Patriots, Panthers, Bengals, Saints and Rams) won, although two of those games were decided by only two points, and the Bengals needed to overcome a 17-point second half deficit. The Titans became a more popular pick later in the week, finishing at 7% pick popularity, but then lost to Buffalo on a last-second field goal. In the end, around 90% of still-alive survivor entries survived Week 5, with most eliminations coming from the Titans.

Tennessee ended up being one of our top recommended picks last week, in a value-based gambit to take on a bit more risk to avoid the super-popular Patriots. So that result stung us. As a result, last week was the first week of the season for which the public had a higher survival rate than our recommended picks did.

However, our second most recommended pick was the Saints, who easily handled Washington, and winning with the Saints means that you now have the big edge of still having the Patriots to use in a future week when they are almost certainly not going to be a very popular pick (since so many survivor players have already used New England now).

Week 6 NFL Survivor Pick Analysis

Now let’s get to some Week 6 survivor pick analysis. As usual, we’ll focus on the popular picks of the week, since you’re probably considering at least one or two of them, and review some of their pros and cons.

IMPORTANT: The teams highlighted below are five of the most popular public picks this week. This is NOT a list of our top recommended picks for your pool. In fact, we often recommend avoiding extremely popular teams, which can increase your expected winnings. If you want to see our recommended picks for your pool(s), you can subscribe to our NFL Survivor Pool Picks and get customized pick advice for each of your survivor entries. Also, data referenced below was current as of Wednesday afternoon, and could change between posting time and kickoff time; our survivor picks product update multiple times per day with the latest information.

For Week 6, one thing that stands out is that four games feature a team that’s favored by at least a touchdown, but in the rest of the games, no team is favored by more than 3.5 points. Vegas odds have the fourth safest pick (the Rams) as almost 10% likelier to win than the fifth safest pick (the Patriots). So there is a clear “safer tier” of four teams (Vikings, Packers, Texans, and Rams); any other survivor pick is going to be a pretty serious gamble.

The two most popular picks this week are the Vikings and Packers, both at 30% pick popularity. Comparatively, the Vikings (10.5 point favorites) are a bit safer than the Packers (9.5 point favorites) according to Vegas odds, and Minnesota also has less future value in the upcoming weeks. Minnesota is one of the safest choices in Week 9 (vs. Detroit), but the Packers should be solid favorites in Week 10 against Miami and may also be the safest team in Week 13 vs. Arizona.

Out of the four safest picks this week, the Rams stand out as being much less popular than the other three, having only 4% pick popularity. The tradeoff you make if you pick the Rams is that you burn a team with a ton of future value, which is important especially if you’re in a survivor pool that still has a lot of entries alive. On the plus side, you would gain a lot of ground in your pool if one or more of the popular choices this week gets upset, and the Rams win. However, LAR is a riskier choice than either the Vikings, Packers, or Texans.

Houston, now just 2-3 after scraping by the Cowboys in overtime, faces a Bills team also coming off its second win, and already etched in the annals of survivor pool history for upsetting Minnesota in Week 3. In contrast to the Packers, Rams and Vikings, though, Houston has little future value. The only remaining future week in which the Texans are in the top tier of safety is Week 14 against Indianapolis, so this may be the best chance you have to use the Texans. At 21% pick popularity, Houston is also less popular than both Green Bay and Minnesota, which is a plus.

Get Our Week 6 Survivor Pick Recommendation

The teams above are the most popular picks this week, but that doesn’t mean one of them is the best pick for you. Your best NFL Week 6 survivor pick is the one that offers the ideal balance of safety, pick popularity, and future value for your specific pool. Every possible pick has an expected value associated with it, and it takes a lot of data and math to p out which pick will maximize your expected profits from your survivor pool(s).

We built our Survivor Picks tools to do all of this analytical work for you. You answer a few questions about your survivor pool’s size and rules, and we provide customized pick recommendations based on the latest matchup data, Vegas odds and public picking trends.

The product even does a second layer of optimization if you are playing multiple survivor entries, recommending exactly how you should split a “portfolio” of survivor pool entries across one, two, or more teams. (Our product optimizes picks for up to 30 unique entries.)

The result? Last year, our subscribers reported winning over $1 million in survivor pool prize money, and their share of winnings from survivor pools they entered was more than four times as much as expected.

You can find more information about our premium NFL products at the following pages: NFL Survivor Picks, Football Pick’em Picks, and NFL Betting Picks.

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